Bitcoin’s Recent Slump: What’s Behind the Stagnation?
As Bitcoin prices hover around the same level as three months ago, many are left wondering what’s behind the stagnation. The top cryptocurrency by market cap has traded mostly down or sideways since hitting the $70,000 mark about two weeks ago. According to experts, this approximate 7% decline can be attributed to several factors rather than a single key incident.
Bitcoin’s recent price movement
One reason for the relative stagnation is the plateauing of the 11 spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Interest had ramped up in January after the SEC approved the ETFs, which now contain over $53 billion combined, according to CoinGlass data. However, the bulk of the inflows came during the first two months of trading: By March 13, $55.3 billion of assets had flowed into the funds, meaning they’ve since contracted. Over the past week, net outflows reached $580.6 million.
Another factor denting Bitcoin’s growth is difficult mining conditions. Bitcoin’s meteoric rise had also been propelled by anticipation of the April 19 halving, where the supply of newly minted coins was cut by 50%, dropping from 6.25 to 3.125 per block. As a result, the hashrate—the total computational power being used to mine Bitcoin—has been volatile. After April’s halving, the rate dipped by 11% during the following four weeks, then briefly recovered before dropping back down.
“Miners are struggling to earn profits given the doubling in per-coin cost.” - Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck
Sigel predicts that Bitcoin’s price will be materially higher by the time of the U.S. elections in November. He also noted that Bitcoin’s recent movement is typical for a bull market. While the coin is currently in the shadow of its all-time high, following an all-time high, price corrections as steep as 20% are common, Sigel adds. “An 11% drawdown is no reason to be concerned.”
The hashrate has been volatile since the April halving
David Lawant, head of research at FalconX, told Fortune that the recent price dip can also be explained by “relatively weak liquidity.” For instance, Bitcoin’s average daily trading volume in June has fallen to less than half of what it was in March, in both spot and futures markets. But the longer-term stagnation has been caused by macroeconomic and political uncertainties, he says.
Bitcoin has been hovering near the lower end of its range as market participants are “still pondering” where the next price catalyst will come from. Areas of ambiguity that are holding investors back include the path of U.S. monetary policy and the upcoming election. In terms of the former, the Federal Reserve has forecast that interest rates will remain higher for longer, which sits at odds with data that suggests inflation could be cooling. The market is trying to “square” this, Lawant says.
The upcoming election is adding to market uncertainty
In terms of the election, while both parties have been making attempts to court crypto-orientated voters, former President Donald Trump has been touting himself as the “crypto president,” according to Reuters. Last week, during a meeting with Bitcoin miners at his Mar-a-Lago estate, he vowed to “stop Joe Biden’s crusade to crush crypto.” While a Trump victory would inevitably be bullish for crypto, polls suggest he has just a 1.1% lead over Biden, and the razor-thin battle is creating an uncertain political backdrop, leaving markets to watch and wait.
Trump’s pro-crypto stance could impact the market
As the market continues to navigate these uncertainties, one thing is clear: Bitcoin’s recent slump is not a cause for concern. With experts predicting a material increase in price by the time of the U.S. elections, it’s clear that the top cryptocurrency by market cap is far from stagnant.
Experts predict a material increase in price by the time of the U.S. elections
