Bitcoin’s Disappointing Q2: Will the Pain Continue?
The second quarter of 2024 has been a dismal one for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market. The price of Bitcoin has dipped nearly 15% during the quarter, with altcoins faring even worse. The CoinDesk Index, which tracks the performance of the cryptocurrency market, fell more than 21% during the last three months.
A difficult Q2 comes to a close
A powerful start to 2024 had the bulls predicting $100,000 Bitcoin at some point this year, but relentless selling pressure during April and June (interrupted by a May bounce) has the price struggling not to drop below $60,000 as the quarter draws to a close.
“The price of bitcoin has dipped nearly 15% during the second quarter and altcoins fared even worse.” - Analyst
Entering the second quarter, Bitcoin was trading just shy of the $71,000 level and at press time (about 60 hours before Q2 officially closes) was changing hands at $60,800, a decline of more than 14%. Helped by the tailwind of what now appears to be certain spot ETF approval, Ether outperformed, but was still in the red in the second quarter with about a 5% drop.
Ether outperformed, but was still in the red
Dragged down by even larger declines in many altcoins, the broader CoinDesk Index fell more than 21% during the last three months. Among the movers, Solana tumbled 30%, Ripple’s XRP dropped 23%, and Dogecoin plunged 42%. The index’s best performer was Ether with its 5% slide.
Positive Catalysts Vanish
Bitcoin’s disappointing second quarter price action, for now, can possibly be thought of as a correction within a larger bull move that saw the token rise nearly five-fold from January 2023 lows to a new all-time record above $73,500 in mid-March of this year.
Anticipation of the spot Bitcoin ETF approval, then the approval, and then the massive inflows into the new funds were surely major catalysts for the rise. Also in play were macro factors – namely the anticipation of a sizable series of interest rate cuts in 2024 from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Inflation, however, has failed to cooperate, and to date, there has been no easing of monetary policy in the U.S., with more than one member of the central bank now not expecting to cut rates even once this year.
Inflation has failed to cooperate
With ETF inflows old news and even on occasion reversing to outflows, and hopes for lower interest rates diminishing daily, buyers appear to have taken to the sidelines until a new catalyst arises.
More Pain in Store in Q3?
Bitcoin entered a downtrend on June 20, writes Markus Thielen at 10X Research, laying out ten reasons why the price could decline to $55,000 in the near term. Thielen noted that many trend-following funds are looking at the same signals and might be inclined to pile into short positions.
In addition, while some bulls may have been excited that the presidential debate seemed to favor Donald Trump – who has recently come out as notably pro-crypto and pro-bitcoin – Thielen suggested President Biden’s poor performance heightened the chance of a replacement Democratic nominee who might end up as a far more formidable opponent in the November election.
Donald Trump has recently come out as notably pro-crypto and pro-bitcoin
Thielen also reminded about seasonality. The third quarter has historically been the weakest one, with an average return of just 5% over the past 13 years. This compares to average returns above 60% in both the second and fourth quarters.
The third quarter has historically been the weakest one
