3 Bold Predictions For Where Bitcoin Could Be 4 Years From Now

As the world of cryptocurrency continues to evolve, one thing is certain - Bitcoin is here to stay. But where will it be in four years? Will it continue to soar to new heights, or will it plateau? In this article, we’ll explore three bold predictions for where Bitcoin could be in four years.

Base Case: A Steady Climb

In the base case scenario, we assume that spot Bitcoin ETFs will continue to see an influx of new investor money, and that Wall Street will continue to embrace Bitcoin as a new asset class for portfolio diversification purposes. Over time, this constant influx of new money should send Bitcoin higher.

Bitcoin ETFs continue to gain traction

But how much higher? There are trade-offs involved in Bitcoin going mainstream, and one of them is that Bitcoin could start to behave more and more like a traditional asset. That means it may no longer deliver the astronomical returns that it once did.

If we use a 20% growth estimate, then four years from now, the price of Bitcoin could more than double from its current level of $70,000 to nearly $150,000. That’s impressive, but nowhere near the $1 million price that some Wall Street analysts are now predicting.

Bull Case: A Tsunami of Investment

The bull case scenario assumes that the steady influx of money into the new Bitcoin ETFs will turn into a tsunami. It also assumes that institutional investors will start to make Bitcoin one of their largest holdings. Right now, institutional investors may only allocate 1% or less of their holdings to Bitcoin. But what if they ramp up that figure to 5%, 10%, or even 20%? That’s when the price of Bitcoin could really take off.

Institutional investors start to take notice

At the same time, the bull case scenario assumes that the much-anticipated Bitcoin halving will deliver as originally expected. In three previous halving cycles (in 2012, 2016, and 2020), the price of Bitcoin absolutely exploded. So why can’t it happen this time, too?

In the previous halving cycle, for example, the price of Bitcoin skyrocketed from $10,000 in May 2020 to $60,000 in April 2021. So any bullish forecast needs to include an extended period of very rapid growth in Bitcoin’s price.

Finally, the bull case scenario assumes that Congressional lawmakers will pass pro-Bitcoin legislation after the 2024 election. We’re already hearing rumblings of a massive sea change in how Washington, D.C. views crypto, and if the next president is bullish on Bitcoin, that’s when things could get very interesting.

Bear Case: A Reality Check

The bear case scenario is basically the “I told you so” scenario. It’s what happens when all the warnings from high-profile investors turn out to have been right. For years, some of the top names on Wall Street have claimed that Bitcoin is basically just a giant Ponzi scheme. And Warren Buffett said that he would not pay $25 for all the Bitcoin in the world.

This is not to say that Bitcoin will fall to zero over the next four years, only that it might not deliver the type of life-changing wealth that some people expect. What happens, for example, if the halving turns out to be a flop? Or if people stop putting their money into the new spot Bitcoin ETFs? Or if any crypto legislation in Congress stalls due to political infighting? In such a scenario, Bitcoin might never go mainstream. And if Bitcoin doesn’t go mainstream, there’s no way it’s going to $1 million.

The future of Bitcoin is uncertain

Consider a Range of Potential Outcomes

When thinking about Bitcoin, it’s important to consider a range of different outcomes. It doesn’t matter if you call them “bull case” or “bear case” scenarios, just that you recognize that a few minor changes in your core assumptions could have a huge effect on where you think the price of Bitcoin is headed next.

For example, consider Cathie Wood of Ark Invest. While she has predicted that the price of Bitcoin could hit $1.48 million by 2030, she also provides a bear case scenario, in which Bitcoin might only hit $258,500. Those wide swings in outcomes are based on tweaking just a few key parameters, such as the expected portfolio allocation to Bitcoin by institutional investors.

Personally, I’m still bullish on Bitcoin over the long haul. But I’m starting to dial back some of my expectations for Bitcoin over the next four years. Once you start playing around with the numbers, you’ll realize how much needs to go right for Bitcoin to hit that mythical $1 million mark.